27 April 2017
Financial markets had enjoyed a build-up in risk sentiment in the early part of the week following the weekend French result. There was something of a reality check yesterday though as investors started to get itchy feet over President Trump’s tax proposals.
The absence of data yesterday meant relatively tight ranges were the order of the day but the risk-off theme prevailed as markets held out for Trump talk.
Back to the much-awaited detail on tax and healthcare, and there was little to chew on. We noted yesterday the potential for lack of detail and so it proved with only an outline plan delivered by Treasury secretary Mnuchin. Progress appears to have been made with regard to healthcare although this seems to be more of a PR effort as we approach the President’s ‘first 100 days’ milestone.
Ultimately, markets were left disappointed and the dollar supportive euphoria that met his election and early promises could fade further still. Sterling once again held firm on the day, accompanied by the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on anti-risk flows.
It’s a heavy data day today but the primary focus is on the ECB policy meeting. No change in policy is anticipated today but there is growing pressure from Germany for President Draghi to acknowledge the widespread upturn in economic fortunes in the region. Any signs of a softening in downside risk rhetoric would be euro positive. However, soft inflation is the card Draghi is likely to play but how long he can continue on this path is questionable.
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